The Premature Demise of War

There’s an old story about a preacher, sermonizing about the evils of hate, who asks rhetorically, “Is there anyone who doesn’t hate someone?” An ancient man sitting at the rear of the congregation rises feebly and says, “Pastor, I don’t hate anyone in the whole wide world.”  The astounded preacher asks him, “What is your secret, sir?” At which the man exclaims joyfully, “I outlived them all!” Reviewing the daily news from the Middle East and Eastern Europe and Asia, it’s hard not to think of that old man. We seem everywhere some days to proceed toward Mutually Assured Destruction scenarios, enjoying every step of the route. The saddest part of the picture is the crowd, including many members of our Congress, cheering along the way.

I wrote a couple of years ago, in “War and Peace and Money”, about how our proclivities for killing each other were very gradually being reduced by the increasing costs of warfare. Armies once totaling in the thousands were now measured in the millions, rifles replaced by million-dollar rockets. All this was to the profit of the military-industrial complex, but strangely enough, also to the profit of peace. Periods of no war had increased by almost 50 percent, the number of wars per century had declined, and the numbers killed were also dropping, all because of the expense of war. Fewer and fewer nations were able to afford it – it had become a luxury item. Even international standards to prevent war were gradually improving. But perhaps the news of war’s demise, like that of Mark Twain’s, was premature.

Alas, some in the complex seem to have seen the handwriting on the wall and have begun correcting the problem.  Their most notable achievement to date has been the development of drones. Devastation can be spread so much more cheaply! It’s an everyman kind of tool, as also, in its own way, is biological warfare. War has been downsized to become more affordable again. Researchers are also talking of such advanced notions as body-enhancement armor, warriors genetically modified to improve their killer abilities, robotic soldiers, etc. Eventually they may succeed in producing the situation where one former-human is left to crow triumphantly, “I’ve done it! They’re all destroyed”, - followed by a very long silence.

A saving grace is the emergence of cyber war. It’s so much cheaper it will likely be the favorite for the international corporations which some predict will soon overwhelm the already declining nation state. And there’s less likelihood with it of large-scale loss of customer base. Even lone terrorists may come to enjoy it. And perhaps the greatest, though distant, grace is the evolution of altruism. Biologists like E. O. Wilson are pointing out that forms of altruism are actually a product of advancing evolution. “Reciprocal cooperation” is also a trait anthropologists note that arises in harsh “prisoner’s dilemma” situations.  The lack of any concerted intelligent response to climate change is pointing toward more and more such harsh conditions as the next few hundred years wear on. Compassion has also been found to be a genetic trait shared at least in limited ways among all species that rear their young. As human “childhood” becomes more and more extended because of the learning and skills required in advanced societies, is it possible that greater compassion will evolve?

So, an emerging prospect, though not yet certain, is of a very grim 21^st century, followed by the as yet faint glimmer of a happier distant future for humanity. But we are creatures of the 21^st century, as likely are our children and grandchildren. In such a long-term future, we are all dead. The situation reminds one of the science fiction story by C.S. Lewis in which an astronaut finds himself stranded on, I think, Venus in what is a veritable Garden of Eden. And the garden includes an Adam and Eve being tempted by a Satan. The despairing astronaut cries out, “God, do something. Don’t let that happen again!” To which God replies, “I did. I put you there.” Perhaps, at this Easter season, with Spring blossoming all around us, and the prospects, with work, of a still possible better future facing us all, that’s a good thing to remember.