Sequence is Everything

Imagine this.  Imagine that after the American Revolution, the colonies had immediately had a democratic election, postponing the decisions about a constitution until after the election.  The only candidates allowed in the election were those who had demonstrated experience as royal governors. And any criticism of them for prior actions was deemed contrary to the public interest and treasonous.   The result was a direct democracy with monarchists in charge (remember that there were sizable numbers of Tory sympathizers during and after the revolution), and public unrest was rampant.  The army remained strong to hold down the unhappy.  The result would of course have been either a series of short republics, a la France, possibly another monarchy, or most probably chaos followed quickly by re-absorption of the colonies by the European powers.  This, in essence, is the picture painted of current-day Iraq and Egypt by Fareed Zakaria in the Washington Post.  Those countries, following an elect first, then think about it, scenario are rapidly falling into a predictable chaos.  As Zakaria puts it, they put democratization before liberalization. That included domination by the majority Muslim Brotherhood of a quick, ramshackle constitutional assembly that enacted an at best partisan document for the new  Egyptian constitution.

For Zakaria, the good guys in the Middle East these days are the monarchies of Jordan and Morocco.  In Jordan, the king established a constitutional council to draw up a constitution, transferring some of the king’s power to a parliament and setting up an independent commission to administer elections and a court to oversee constitutionality.  It was approved and elections were held with a good mix of candidates elected.  Although the Muslim Brotherhood tried to boycott the elections, their effort failed, and the country comfortably accepted the results.  Morocco is following a similar path.

When I was learning to play a little (not much) chess from a friend who was an expert player, the mantra he constantly drilled into me was, “sequence is everything.”  The good player knows that just a small change in the sequence of moves in a complex situation can produce remarkable results.  Nowhere is that more evident than in the Middle East.  The Islamic Spring is being followed by hurricanes without structures having been built to shelter from them.  Part of the problem is cultural; civility is enforced by strength.  Maintaining dignity during passionate argument is so essential that insulting an official is made illegal in a useless attempt to control violence. In the west, insulting officials is so routine that no one notices.   But that is strong evidence that constitutions and laws should come before elections, not after.  The shelters are needed.

And, as Governor Christie mutters, candidates matter.  The American colonies were successful in their revolution in part because, instead of electing the most liberal of the monarchists, they elected the most conservative of the revolutionaries.   Patrick Henry was banished from their councils while the Constitution was constructed, and Jefferson was sent away to France.  Washington was a revolutionary leader, but not a revolutionary thinker.  Franklin, Hamilton and Madison were true moderates.  Electing before the constitutional framework is established to create a balanced political system ensures that either the strongest conservatives or the most passionate revolutionaries will be in charge, to the detriment of all.

The result of these sequence issues in the Middle East has been the emergence of what Zakaria terms “illiberal democracies.”  But such governments are naturally short-lived; they cannot cope with the stresses of constant societal change without the moderating structures to contain them.  Things will fall apart.  They will be torn between the needs of their people for orderly government and the anarchic ideals of the revolutionaries.  Egypt and Iraq, like many countries before them, will need a fresh constitution, balanced between all their interests, and moderate leaders to design it and to execute it.  They have some good role models, from the neighboring Middle East to Turkey to Indonesia to the western democracies to guide them.  It is important for the health of their nations and of the world that they study and learn from them.